Quotidian Address

Let me start by saying I don’t know how much normal changes as a direct result of the pandemic. When I look to history for how things may fall out, what strikes me is that by historical standards Covid-19 is relatively mild. A plague in Athens in the 5 th century killed a third of the city’s population. The Black Death killed 30-60% of Europe’s population, and perhaps 20% of the world population.  That’s not to minimize coronavirus, and there are still considerable uncertainty bars around the exact scale of the exact virulence of Covid, never mind the next pandemic. But, what we see in history is that life goes on: survivors pick up the pieces and do the best they can. As a result, if we do see a change from normal, I think it will be a result of psychological factors, perhaps combined with the policy response, rather than the pandemic itself. The biggest direct changes may be from having proof of concept: remote work and other experiments have been forced on governments,...

This week, let's take a diversion from our previous conversation to think about this global pandemic we find ourselves in. As I write this, I've been living and working from home for almost 3 weeks, waiting for an Uber Eats delivery, and about to jump into a video game to spend time with friends. The restaurants are empty, the offices are following suit, and the streets are eerily quiet. We could of course look backward, and think about how we got here, ignoring prescient warnings and inviting disaster. But for now, let's look ahead. Quebec just extended it's official closures until May. The US overnight doubled in cases with 13,000 new cases in New York alone. It looks like we're in this for the long haul. So, the question on many of our minds. When does it end? When do we return to normal? And will what is normal change? For my part, I think we haven't seen the worst of this yet, either in it's estimated or actual impact. The US in particular present...

What a great frame for the discussion! Evolution and revolution. I agree: much of life is slowly laying down stones, and then there are golden moments and decisions that can shape the entire castle. Both are important: if you spend your life waiting for the time of revolution, you may find it never comes and you never achieve much, as Bernie Sanders may now be learning. If you don’t seize the moments when revolution is possible, you miss out on huge opportunities for growth and impact. The other thing your frame suggests is that moments of crisis are also moments of opportunity. They are moments to examine our lives, rethink, and if we wish start a revolution. It is too easy to get stuck in our routines, even good ones, and stagnate. Part of what makes us alive is change: slow evolution, even in the right direction, can be stultifying.  As for me, when I face crises I lean on the Stoics. I try to remind myself that what matters is the choices I make: I cannot always co...

Another excellent prompt. What can we do to put more weight on our long term best interests over our short term ones. Admittedly, I am not an excellent exemplar of this. I've whiled away many evenings in short term pursuits, be they video games, Netflix shows, etc. I have done reasonably well, though, at balancing the short and long term so maybe I can take a stab at it anyway. In chess, there is the idea of evolution and revolution. As you play, you try to slowly evolve the position into your favor by accumulating small advantages. At some point, though, an opportunity arises for you to commit to a revolution, perhaps an all out attack initiated by a piece sacrifice. It's rare that a revolution lasts the entirety of a game, however, and you usually have to create some advantage from the attack and then go back to evolution. Balancing these two phases is important to be able to play effectively: if you get stuck in former, you may never be able to convert an advantage, wherea...